The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model     

J. Baehr  K. Fröhlich  M. Botzet  D. I. V. Domeisen  L. Kornblueh  D. Notz  R. Piontek  H. Pohlmann  S. Tietsche  W. A. Müller 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2723-2735

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Earthquake hazard analysis for East Anatolian Fault Zone,Turkey     

Erdem Bayrak  Şeyda Yılmaz  Mustafa Softa  Tuğba Türker  Yusuf Bayrak 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(2):1063-1077

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Late Miocene to Early Pliocene blueschist from Taiwan and its exhumation via forearc extraction          下载免费PDF全文

Sascha Sandmann  Thorsten J. Nagel  Nikolaus Froitzheim  Kamil Ustaszewski  Carsten Münker 《地学学报》2015,27(4):285-291

Blueschist facies rocks in the Yuli Belt of Taiwan's Central Range record ongoing subduction of the Eurasian plate. We present a prograde Lu–Hf garnet–whole‐rock age of 5.1 ± 1.7 Ma from a retrogressed blueschist in the Yuli Belt. This age is considerably younger than the previously assumed age of 14–8 Ma for high‐pressure metamorphism in the Yuli Belt and represents the youngest Lu–Hf garnet age ever recorded for blueschist facies metamorphism. The age sheds new light on the palaeogeographic origin and exhumation scenario of the Yuli Belt. We propose that the Yuli Belt originated from the ocean–continent boundary of the Chinese passive margin. It was subducted eastward during collision with the Luzon island arc and rapidly exhumed when the forearc lithosphere was removed from above the continental slab by discrete subduction (extraction). This process reduces the pressure above the continental slab and may prompt the ascent of subducted crust into the opening gap. Thus, it can control the exhumation of high‐pressure rocks.  相似文献   

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Stoelzle  Markus Weiler  Kerstin Stahl  Andreas Morhard  Tobias Schuetz 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1301-1313

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic Sliding Analysis of a Gravity Dam with Fluid-Structure-Foundation Interaction Using Finite Elements and Newmark’s Sliding Block Analysis     

Markus Goldgruber  Shervin Shahriari  Gerald Zenz 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(6):2405-2419

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Solar Energetic Particle Events with Protons Above 500 MeV Between 1995 and 2015 Measured with SOHO/EPHIN     

P. Kühl  N. Dresing  B. Heber  A. Klassen 《Solar physics》2017,292(1):10

The Sun is an effective particle accelerator that produces solar energetic particle (SEP) events, during which particles of up to several GeVs can be observed. These events, when they are observed at Earth with the neutron monitor network, are called ground-level enhancements (GLEs). Although these events with their high-energy component have been investigated for several decades, a clear relation between the spectral shape of the SEPs outside the Earth’s magnetosphere and the increase in neutron monitor count rate has yet to be established. Hence, an analysis of these events is of interest for the space weather and for the solar event community.In this article, SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV were identified using data obtained with the Electron Proton Helium Instrument (EPHIN) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) between 1995 and 2015. For a statistical analysis, onset times were determined for the events and the proton energy spectra were derived and fitted with a power law.As a result, we present a list of 42 SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV measured with the EPHIN instrument onboard SOHO. The statistical analysis based on the fitted spectral slopes and absolute intensities is discussed, with special emphasis on whether an event has been observed as a GLE. Furthermore, we are able to determine that the derived intensity at 500 MeV and the observed increase in neutron monitor count rate are correlated for a subset of events.  相似文献   

On Flare-CME Characteristics from Sun to Earth Combining Remote-Sensing Image Data with <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Measurements Supported by Modeling     

Manuela Temmer  Julia K. Thalmann  Karin Dissauer  Astrid M. Veronig  Johannes Tschernitz  Jürgen Hinterreiter  Luciano Rodriguez 《Solar physics》2017,292(7):93

We analyze the well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) from 1 October 2011 (SOL2011-10-01T09:18) covering the complete chain of effects – from Sun to Earth – to better understand the dynamic evolution of the CME and its embedded magnetic field. We study in detail the solar surface and atmosphere associated with the flare and CME using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and ground-based instruments. We also track the CME signature off-limb with combined extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). By applying the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) reconstruction method and total mass to stereoscopic STEREO-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) coronagraph data, we track the temporal and spatial evolution of the CME in the interplanetary space and derive its geometry and 3D mass. We combine the GCS and Lundquist model results to derive the axial flux and helicity of the magnetic cloud (MC) from in situ measurements from Wind. This is compared to nonlinear force-free (NLFF) model results, as well as to the reconnected magnetic flux derived from the flare ribbons (flare reconnection flux) and the magnetic flux encompassed by the associated dimming (dimming flux). We find that magnetic reconnection processes were already ongoing before the start of the impulsive flare phase, adding magnetic flux to the flux rope before its final eruption. The dimming flux increases by more than 25% after the end of the flare, indicating that magnetic flux is still added to the flux rope after eruption. Hence, the derived flare reconnection flux is most probably a lower limit for estimating the magnetic flux within the flux rope. We find that the magnetic helicity and axial magnetic flux are lower in the interplanetary space by ～?50% and 75%, respectively, possibly indicating an erosion process. A CME mass increase of 10% is observed over a range of \({\sim}\,4\,\mbox{--}\,20~\mathrm{R}_{\odot }\). The temporal evolution of the CME-associated core-dimming regions supports the scenario that fast outflows might supply additional mass to the rear part of the CME.  相似文献   

Observations of a Radio-Quiet Solar Preflare     

Arnold O. Benz  Marina Battaglia  Manuel Güdel 《Solar physics》2017,292(10):151

The preflare phase of the flare SOL2011-08-09T03:52 is unique in its long duration, in that it was covered by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and because it showed three well-developed soft X-ray (SXR) peaks. No hard X-rays (HXR) are observed in the preflare phase. Here we report that no associated radio emission at 17 GHz was found either, despite the higher sensitivity of the radio instrument. The ratio between the SXR peaks and the upper limit of the radio peaks is higher by more than one order of magnitude than the ratio in regular flares. The result suggests that the ratio between acceleration and heating in the preflare phase was different than in regular flares. Acceleration to relativistic energies, if any, occurred with lower efficiency.  相似文献   

Franz-Ludwig Deubner (1934 – 2017)     

Bernhard Fleck  Oskar von der Lühe 《Solar physics》2017,292(12):178

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Snow carrots after the Chelyabinsk event and model implications for highly porous solar system objects          下载免费PDF全文

Robert Luther  Natalia Artemieva  Marina Ivanova  Cyril Lorenz  Kai Wünnemann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(5):979-999

After the catastrophic disruption of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid, small fragments formed funnels in the snow layer covering the ground. We constrain the pre‐impact characteristics of the fragments by simulating their atmospheric descent with the atmospheric entry model. Fragments resulting from catastrophic breakup may lose about 90% of their initial mass due to ablation and reach the snow vertically with a free‐fall velocity in the range of 30–90 m s^?1. The fall time of the fragments is much longer than their cooling time, and, as a consequence, fragments have the same temperature as the lower atmosphere, i.e., of about ?20 °C. Then, we use the shock physics code iSALE to model the penetration of fragments into fluffy snow, the formation of a funnel and a zone of denser snow lining its walls. We examine the influence of several material parameters of snow and present our best‐fit model by comparing funnel depth and funnel wall characteristics with observations. In addition, we suggest a viscous flow approximation to estimate funnel depth dependence on the meteorite mass. We discuss temperature gradient metamorphism as a possible mechanism which allows to fill the funnels with denser snow and to form the observed “snow carrots.” This natural experiment also helps us to calibrate the iSALE code for simulating impacts into highly porous matter in the solar system including tracks in the aerogel catchers of the Stardust mission and possible impact craters on the 67P/Churyumov‐Gerasimenko comet observed recently by the Rosetta mission.  相似文献